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Macedonia
Republika Makedonija
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Economy - Macedonia

Macedonia is a small economy with a gross domestic product (GDP) of about $5.1 billion, representing about 0.01% of the total world output. It also is an open economy, highly integrated into international trade, with a total trade-to-GDP ratio of 90.2%. Agriculture and industry have been the two most important sectors of the economy, but the services sector has gained prominence in the past few years. Like most transition economies, problems persist, even as Macedonia takes steps toward reform. A largely obsolete industrial infrastructure has not seen much investment during the transition period. Work force education and skills are competitive, but without adequate job opportunities, many with the best skills seek employment abroad. A low standard of living, high unemployment rate, and relatively low economic growth rate are the central economic problems.

Five years of continuous economic expansion in Macedonia was interrupted by the 2001 conflict, which led to a contraction of 4.5% in 2001. Growth started to pick up in 2003 (3.4%) and continued in 2004 (2.9%) and the first half of 2005 (3.7%). Living standards still lag behind those enjoyed before independence. In 2005, real growth is projected to reach 3.8% with inflation of up to 1.5%. The United States is supporting Macedonia's transition to a democratic, secure, market-oriented society with substantial amounts of assistance.

Background

After the breakup of Yugoslavia in 1991, Macedonia, the former Yugoslavia's poorest republic, faced formidable economic challenges posed by both the transition to a market economy and a difficult regional situation. The breakup deprived Macedonia of key protected markets and large transfer payments from the central Yugoslav government. The war in Bosnia, international sanctions on Serbia, and the 1999 crisis in neighboring Kosovo delivered successive shocks to Macedonia's trade-dependent economy. The government's painful but necessary structural reforms and macroeconomic stabilization program generated additional economic dislocation. Macedoniaís economy was hurt especially by a trade embargo imposed by Greece in February 1994 in a dispute over the country's name, flag, and constitution, and by international trade sanctions against Serbia that were not suspended until a month after conclusion of the Dayton Accords. The impact of the 2001 ethnic Albanian insurgency in Macedonia, decreased international demand for Macedonian products, canceled contracts in the textile and iron and steel industry, and poor restructuring of the private sector affected Macedonia's growth and foreign trade prospects through 2004. An international donors conference, organized by the World Bank and the European Commission, was held March 12, 2002, at which donors pledged $275 million to assist in covering Macedonia's projected budget gap, implementing Framework Agreement reforms, and re-energizing the Macedonian economy.

Although concerns stemming from the 2001 conflict linger, all constitutional changes and legislation mandated by the internationally mediated Framework Agreement have been implemented, and Macedonia's political and security situation is stable. This has allowed the government to refocus energies on domestic reforms, boosting economic growth, and attracting increased levels of foreign investment. In 2004, the government passed a progressive Trade Companies Law aimed at easing impediments to foreign investment, providing tax and investment incentives, and guaranteeing shareholder rights. The governmentís progress on structural economic reforms slowed in 2004 as the country faced another series of challenges--the death of President Trajkovski, resulting early presidential elections, a contentious debate over Framework Agreement-mandated decentralization legislation, and a polarizing referendum on new municipal boundaries, which took place November 7, 2004.

Macroeconomy

Real GDP in the first half of 2005 grew by 3.7%, following 2.9% growth in 2004. That growth was mainly driven by the re-opening of a few loss-making companies and by strong exports of primary metals. Industrial output rose dramatically in the first half of 2005, increasing by 9.3%. The annualized consumer price index (CPI) at the end-year rose by 0.2%. The official unemployment rate climbed to 37.4%. A conservative fiscal policy maintained a budget deficit of -0.1% during the first half of 2005; the government's target is -0.6% for 2005. Monetary policy also remained conservative, which provided little room for credit expansion. Exports grew faster than imports in the first half of 2005, narrowing the trade deficit to 10.6% of GDP, and reducing the current account deficit to about 2.1% of GDP. External debt remained stable at 35.2% of GDP.

In late 2005, Macedonian authorities concluded a new Stand-By Arrangement with the IMF and a Programmatic Development Policy Loan (PDPL) with the World Bank.

Trade

Macedonia remains committed to pursuing membership in European and global economic structures. It became a full World Trade Organization (WTO) member in April 2003. Following a 1997 cooperation agreement with the European Union (EU), Macedonia signed a Stabilization and Association Agreement with the EU in April 2001, giving Macedonia duty-free access to European markets. Macedonia has had a foreign trade deficit since 1994, which reached a record high of $1,229 million in 2004. Total 2004 trade (imports plus exports of goods and services) was $4.58 billion, or 90.2% of GDP. Macedonia's major trading partners are Serbia and Montenegro, Germany, and Greece. The United States is Macedonia's eleventh-largest trading partner. In 2004, U.S.-Macedonia trade in goods totaled $119.8 million. According to Macedonian trade data, U.S. exports accounted for 1.6% of Macedonia's total imports. U.S. meat, mainly poultry, and electrical machinery have been particularly attractive to Macedonian importers. Principal Macedonian exports to the United States are tobacco, apparel, footwear, and iron and steel.

Macedonia has signed Free Trade Agreements with Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia and Montenegro, Bulgaria, Croatia, Ukraine, Slovenia, Turkey, Romania, and the European Free Trade Association countries. It also has signed an Interim Free Trade Agreement with the UN Mission in Kosovo.



This page was last updated on 7 July, 2008

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